The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
Intermittent, widespread rains lashed Chennai and other regions of Tamil Nadu on Tuesday and the India meteorological department said the low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal has turned into a well-marked low pressure area and it is likely to become a depression.
The central and western parts of India, which form the core monsoon zone, may face challenges in coping with the drying effects due to inadequate rainfall early in the season, Skymet Weather said.
Tamil Nadu CM Jayalalithaa said the "unprecedented" northeast monsoon killed 470 people and nearly a lakh livestock besides damaging crops in over 3.83 lakh hectares.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala.
While it hit the national capital two days before schedule, its entry into the financial capital is two weeks late, the Met office said.
India recorded around 16 per cent more rainfall than normal in August, with rainfall over Northwest India recorded at 253.9 mm, the second highest in August since 2001, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.
The IMD said that rainfall over India in August and September would be around 106 percent of the long-period average of 422.8 mm.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
Meteorologists earlier said Cyclone 'Biparjoy' had been impacting the intensity of the monsoon and that its onset over Kerala would be 'mild'.
According to the IMD forecast, monsoon is likely to be normal this year.
Mohapatra said there is a 40 per cent chance of a normal rainfall, 22 per cent above normal, 12 per cent excess and 18 per cent below normal.
'The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.'
Heavy rain in the first week of July compensated for the shortfall but caused flooding in many northeastern states.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
The load-shedding has been in force for the last several months as the water level in reservoirs depleted drastically due to deficient rainfall last year.
Cyclone 'Biparjoy', the first storm brewing in the Arabian Sea this year, has rapidly intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, with meteorologists predicting a 'mild' monsoon onset over Kerala and 'weak' progress beyond southern peninsular under its influence.
Several areas of Tamil Nadu remain inundated after hours of heavy to moderate rainfall in the region. Water entered houses and markets in the low-lying residential areas of Erode district due to heavy rainfall throughout the night.
India is likely to witness normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. Rainfall will be 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm of the 1971-2020 period, it noted. Earlier, the IMD used to consider the LPA of 88cm of the 1961-2010 period.
The four-month monsoon season from June to September accounts for 75 per cent of rainfall in the country.
Senior IMD scientist R K Jenamani said the monsoon covered south and central Arabian Sea, entire Kerala, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu between May 31 and June 7.
East and northeast India recorded 29 per cent rain deficit -- 141.5 mm against the normal of 199.9 mm -- from March 1 to May 3.
Skymet says the IMD ignored the required criterion of two days of necessary rainfall to declare a proper onset of monsoon, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
The rains after arriving over Kerala will quickly cover Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, but then might slacken a bit, which could delay its arrival over Northwest India.
Pre-monsoon rainfall, colloquial referred to as "mango showers", is vital to many parts of the country.
By June 14, the monsoon should have reached central India. But this year it hasn't even covered Karnataka properly or entered the Northeast.
The southwest monsoon over the country is likely to be normal in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday in its forecast for the month.
The Southwest Monsoon usually covers the entire country on July 8. The earlier normal date for the monsoon to cover the entire country was July 15.
It has also predicted a below normal monsoon for the season with a Long Period Average of 93 per cent, subject to the error margin of 5 per cent.
G P Sharma, President (Meteorology) of the Skymet Weather said the Long Period Average of the rainfall during June to September will be 103 per cent with an error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent.
India is likely to see above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country in the March to May period, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference.
According to the Central Water Commission, of the 91 major reservoirs in the country, 62 water bodies reported 80 per cent or below of normal storage.
Very heavy rainfall is likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala on Wednesday.
Rainfall in August is predicted to be below normal (less than 94 per cent of LPA), but the situation is expected to improve comparatively in September, the IMD said.
Monsoon is likely to reach Maharashtra and Goa in the next two days, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday, with a private weather forecasting agency predicting sustained heavy rains later this week.
By now, monsoon should have reached the central India, including parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, but it is yet to reach Maharashtra.
Between June 1 and July 28, about 32 per cent of the 685 districts in the country did not receive adequate rainfall.
Southwest monsoon hit Kerala on Friday marking the start of the rainy season, four days after its normal onset date.
'Southwest Monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab and thus it has covered the entire country today, the 26th June 2020,' the IMD said in its special Daily Weather Report.
Bijoy Venugopal takes a long, wet drive through the hills of Tamil Nadu to meet the monsoon on its way out. The second part of the series.
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